February 25, 2009
The year 2007 was marked by the debate on sustainability and climate change. More than 3,000 scientists on the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), representing almost a hundred countries, concluded that global warming is unequivocal and caused by greenhouse gas emissions of anthropogenic origin. [1]
Our existing energy model, based on fossil sources, is showing clear signs of exhaustion. According to the UK industry Taskforce on Pick Oil & Energy Security report [2], a peak in global oil production will be reached in the period 2011-2015. For this reason, one of the most important challenges in the coming years will be to progress towards a model based on non-contaminating renewable energy sources with a guaranteed supply. In order to effectively combat climate change, I believe that we need to adopt a new economic paradigm in which the costs of goods and services include not only the manufacturing cost, but their environmental cost as well.
The coming years will witness a substantial rise in world population (it is very likely that it will reach 8 G [3] people within 20 years, and in 2050 will grow to 9.3 G) [4] . This will have a significant impact from the environmental standpoint. In the first place, we will experience a considerable lack of water, with 50% of the population possibly suffering scarcity [5]. In addition, waste generated, both industrial and domestic, will increase substantially. And, finally, if we do not promote the use of clean energy sources, there will be a dramatic increase in the demand for energy, resulting in a rise in CO2 emissions.
We must point out that the world’s CO2 emissions from the transportation sector exceeded 5 G annual tons in 2002, of which more than 4.2 G came from road transportation. CO2 emissions from transportation for 2030 are projected to exceed 8.5 G tons [6]. With respect to the European Union, forecasts show that between 2000 and 2030 emissions will increase by 1 G to 1.3 G tons annually in Europe alone [7]. In short, CO2 emissions from the transportation sector are at a very high level and therefore have tremendous environmental consequences.
In view of the situation, it is not at all surprising that biofuels represent the most promising alternative for decreasing the environmental impact of the transportation sector. The use of bioethanol as a fuel delivers a reduction of more than 144 grams of CO2 for each kilometer driven [8]. In fact, there is no other real viable alternative capable of generating similar benefits over the next 20 to 30 years. And we must not forget that the elimination of these gases and of local contaminants, such as nitrogen oxide or suspended particles, leads to an observable reduction in the risk of people’s health problems.
And it is a fact, moreover, that biofuels can, on the one hand, help decrease the dependence on energy, which most of the world’s nations have contracted with the oligopoly of oil-producing countries; and, on the other, they can contribute to lowering oil import expenditure. Each year, over 30 G barrels of petroleum are consumed [9], which implies a cost, assuming a price per barrel of 100 dollars, of over $3 T [10] dollars. Even a small country like Spain, which uses just over 500 M barrels per year, pays more than $50 G dollars each year. And, according to European Commission estimates, energy demand will increase at a rate of 1% per year until 2030 [11]. However, if a locally produced blend of 85% bioethanol (E85) were used in Spain, over $42 G dollars could be saved each year, which would considerably reduce currency flight to countries abroad.
Biofuels also contribute to sustaining rural populations by giving them options, both as producers of raw materials as well as in transformation industries. In short, the use of biofuels, along with increased vehicle energy efficiency, is essential in the struggle against climate change and in countries’ achieving greater energy independence. Both objectives are very important for attaining sustainability.
The basic rationale usually behind the condemnation of the use of biofuels is as follows: “Biofuels are obtained from cereals, so their production makes the demand for cereals rise, and therefore prices go up. This price increase is transferred to the consumer’s wallet and causes more hunger in the world.” This, of course, is a distortion.
Cereal production allocated to bioethanol in Europe during 2007 will have been 2%, and will not exceed 4% in order to meet the objectives set for 2010 [12] ; amounts too low to significantly affect prices. To this we must add that second-generation biofuels will no longer be obtained from grain, but rather with biomass from vegetable waste matter (straw, leaves, husks, stalks,..), so, in the mid and long term, the increase in biofuel production will not have any effect whatsoever on the cereal market.
We must ask, then, the following question: To what can we attribute the cereal price increases that are being mentioned so often in the newspapers? To the poor harvests of the last three years, which have reduced the existing supply. Wheat production in Spain in 2005 was almost half of that for 2004. Production levels in 2006 and 2007 were 21% and 10% lower. To this we must add other factors, such as the increase in consumption in Asia or the introduction of investment funds into the market, the aim of which is to take advantage of the volatility of grain prices for speculation. This is making funds act as market drivers, thus increasing volatility in products and causing their price to peak.
This explanation has been clearly confirmed by the wheat prices evolution in the third quarter of 2008. During theses months, the biofuels production has continued to growth, while due the financial crash, the speculative investment founds have been withdrawn from the wheat market. All these factors have contributed to wheat prices drop of 50%, which evidents the little influence on prices of the biofuel production and the large influence of the other factors mentioned before.
In order to produce 28 megajoules of bioethanol, just one megajoule of petroleum is used. [13] Obviously, other energy sources are used as well, especially those derived from the electrical mix; but not petroleum, however. Therefore, bioethanol has the potential of mass displacement of oil consumption. In the light of these facts, corroborated by many other similar analyses conducted by prestigious research institutions, we can see that the use of bioethanol as a fuel for transportation offers two clear advantages over gasoline: a decrease of fossil energy consumption in its production and distribution, which increases the duration of oil reserves by up to 28 times, and a greater reduction in CO2 emissions, thereby reducing the impact on the greenhouse effect.
What energy will our grandchildren use?
By the end of the 21st century, energy consumption will be 2.5 times higher than it is today, with the resulting increase in emissions. [14] In order to achieve a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of around 20% (assuming that the current pattern of electric power generation holds), between 40% and 50% would have to be generated from renewable sources.
Covering just a small portion (under 5%) of our hot deserts with solar troughs would suffice to satisfy the electrical needs of the entire world. [15] Other estimates indicate that the solar energy available in the deserts surpasses the world’s consumption of primary energy by over 700 times. In any case, there is significant agreement among the academic community that the current and future energy needs of the whole world could be met many times over by solely taking advantage of the solar radiation received by deserts. The Iberian Peninsula, for example, could obtain 8.32 times the total demand for energy in 2050. [16]
There are numerous alternative technologies available today for producing electricity from the sun, and they can be categorized into two groups. First, photovoltaic technology, which converts solar radiation into electricity by virtue of the photoelectric effect, and, secondly, thermosolar technology, based on the conversion to heat of the radiated energy, which is subsequently used in a thermodynamic cycle.
The future scenario will be based along these lines:
The other energy vector of the future, hydrogen, is a safe bet, I believe, and will complement electricity extensively. This element is not a primary source of energy, but rather, like electricity, constitutes a means of transmitting energy from primary sources to users (which is precisely the definition of an energy vector). There are currently two ways of using hydrogen. The first involves its use in conventional thermal processes (internal combustion engines or turbines). In this kind of thermal conversion, no contaminating emissions are produced (except for some H2/air ratios where high temperature produces nitrogen oxides). The second involves conversion to electricity through electrochemical processes in fuel cells. There would be no emissions associated with this type of conversion.
Hydrogen, as I have pointed out, will be the energy of the future, in tandem with electricity. And solar energy will be the most widely used energy source. Having said this, however, I do not want to be misinterpreted: in both cases, there must be energy alternatives to complement the use of hydrogen and solar radiation. However, given the economic interests tied to fossil fuels, reaching the point where the sun and hydrogen provide for 80 percent of our energy needs will not be an easy row to hoe.
Unfortunately, the pressure from those who defend fossil energies can make us all have doubts. We will have to show that we are able to understand the advantages of renewable energy sources, confident in the knowledge that we are not making a mistake, and continuing to devote resources to research.
The future generations will be glad we did.
[1] Solomon, S., et al.: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment. Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. 2007. Pags.727-728.
[2]The Oil Crunch, Security the UK’s energy future. First report of the UK industry Taskforce on Peak Oil & Energy Security, Otb 2008.
[3] G = 10 9 = 1,000,000,000 = milliard.
[4] Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision. <http://esa.un.org/unpp>.
[5] N/WWAP (United Nations/World Water Assessment Programme): 1st UN World Water Development Report: Water for People, Water for Life. UNESCO and Berghahn Books. 2003.
[6] Stern N.: The Economics of Climate Change – The Stern Review. Cambridge University Press. 2006.
[7] European Commission – DG Energy and Transport: European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030. 2003.
[8] Lechón, Y., et al.: Análisis del ciclo de vida de combustibles alternativos para el transporte. Fase I. Análisis de Ciclo de Vida comparativo del etanol de cereales y de la gasolina. Energía y cambio climático. Ciemat. 2003.
[9] Energy Information Administration: International Energy Outlook 2007, U.S. Department of Energy. 2007. Pag. 29.
[10] T = tera = 10 12 = 1,000,000,000,000 = trillion.
[11] European Commission – DG Energy and Transport: European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030. 2003.
[12] European Commission -- DG for Agriculture and Rural Development: Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the European Union 2007-2014. 2007.
[13] Dale B: Thinking Clearly about Biofuels: Ending the Irrelevant ‘Net Energy’ Debate and Developing Better Performance Metrics for Alternative Fuels. Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. 1:000–000 (2007).
[14] Nakicenovic N. et al.: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge University Press. 2000.
[15] Kurokawa K. et al.: Energy from the desert: Feasibility of very large-scale photovoltaic power generation (VLS-PV) systems. Photovoltaic systems executive committee of the International Energy Agency. 2003.
[16] The " Renewables 2050" Report, commissioned by Greenpeace of the Institute for Technological Research at the Universidad Pontificia de Comillas, states that "the most abundant renewable resources are those related to solar energy: if all solar technologies were put together, energy equivalent to 8.32 times the total energy demand on the Iberian Peninsula could be obtained in 2050."
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